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Some physical and socio-economic aspects of climate change in Central America

Artículo científico
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Date
2012-06
Author
Hidalgo León, Hugo G.
Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.
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Abstract
The relative magnitude of precipitation and temperature changes obtained from 21st-century climate change projections from general circulation models (GCMs) is compared to the changes in a selection of socioeconomic indicators from countries in Central America. The objectives of the study are: (1) to determine the relative influence of climatic and socio-economic variables for different 21st-century scenarios; and (2) to compare the relative situation of each of the countries of Central America, considering climate and socio-economic variables during present and future scenarios. Each socio-economic variable along with the projected changes in precipitation and temperature are used to produce red-green-blue (RGB) composite maps during the historical, mid-century, and end-of-21st-century horizon scenarios. The most consistent result is that the current north–south socio-economic contrast between the countries (in which the southern countries of Panama and Costa Rica present better living conditions than the rest of the Central American countries), is not diminished in the future; and for some combination of scenarios this contrast is exacerbated by future socio-economic differences and climate change impacts. Moreover, Panama and Costa Rica are the only countries that present improved living conditions at the end of the century when considering increases in gross domestic product (GDP) and the effects of climate change. It is worrisome that the north–south differences in the living standards will keep growing in the region, and attention should be given to socio-economic and physical aspects that may play a role in increasing these differences.
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10669/11369
External link to the item
10.1177/0309133312438906
http://ppg.sagepub.com/content/early/2012/03/23/0309133312438906
Artículo científico -- Universidad de Costa Rica, Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI). 2012. Este documento es privado debido a limitaciones de derechos de autor.
 
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  • Repositorios universitarios

  • Repositorio del SIBDI-UCR
  • Biblioteca Digital del CIICLA
  • Repositorio Documental Rafael Obregón Loría (CIHAC)
  • Biblioteca Digital Carlos Melendez (CIHAC)
  • Repositorio de Fotografías
  • Colección de videos de UPA-VAS
  • Sitios recomendados

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  • Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO)
  • Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
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Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Costa Rica. Algunos derechos reservados. Este repositorio funciona con DSpace.
Universidad de Costa Rica