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dc.creatorMaldonado Mora, Tito José
dc.creatorAlfaro Martínez, Eric J.
dc.creatorFallas López, Berny
dc.creatorAlvarado Gamboa, Luis Fernando
dc.date.accessioned2015-06-11T21:15:59Z
dc.date.available2015-06-11T21:15:59Z
dc.date.issued2013-04-02
dc.identifier.citationhttp://www.adv-geosci.net/33/41/2013/adgeo-33-41-2013.pdfes_ES
dc.identifier.issn1680-7340
dc.identifier.issn1680-7359
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10669/14015
dc.descriptionArtículo científico -- Universidad de Costa Rica. Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas, 2013es_ES
dc.description.abstractHigh mountains divide Costa Rica, Central America, into two main climate regions, the Pacific and Caribbean slopes, which are lee and windward, respectively, according to the North Atlantic trade winds – the dominant wind regime. The rain over the Pacific slope has a bimodal annual cycle, having two maxima, one in May–June and the other in August-September-October (ASO), separated by the midsummer drought in July. A first maximum of deep convection activity, and hence a first maximum of precipitation, is reached when sea surface temperature (SST) exceeds 29 C (around May). Then, the SST decreases to around 1 C due to diminished downwelling solar radiation and stronger easterly winds (during July and August), resulting in a decrease in deep convection activity. Such a reduction in deep convection activity allows an increase in down welling solar radiation and a slight increase in SST (about 28.5 C) by the end of August and early September, resulting once again in an enhanced deep convection activity, and, consequently, in a second maximum of precipitation. Most of the extreme events are found during ASO. Central American National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) have periodic Regional Climate Outlook Fora (RCOF) to elaborate seasonal predictions. Recently, meetings after RCOF with different socioeconomic stakeholders took place to translate the probable climate impacts from predictions. From the feedback processes of these meetings has emerged that extreme event and rainy days seasonal predictions are necessary for different sectors. As is shown in this work, these predictions can be tailored using Canonical Correlation Analysis for rain during ASO, showing that extreme events and rainy days in Central America are influenced by interannual variability related to El Ni˜no-Southern Oscillation and decadal variability associated mainly with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Analyzing the geographical distribution of the ASO- 2010 disaster reports, we noticed that they did not necessarily agree with the geographical extreme precipitation event distribution, meaning that social variables, like population vulnerability, should be included in the extreme events impact analysis.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversidad de Costa Rica. Instituto de Investigaciones Geofísicases_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipInstituto Costarricense de Electricidades_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversity of Costa Rica, Graduate Program in Atmospheric Scienceses_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversity of Costa Rica, Center for Research in Marine Sciences and Limnologyes_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversity of Costa Rica, School of Physicses_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Meteorological Institutees_ES
dc.language.isoen_USes_ES
dc.publisherAdvances in Geosciences 33:41-52es_ES
dc.sourceAdvances in Geosciences 33:41-52es_ES
dc.subjectCosta Ricaes_ES
dc.subjectAmérica Centrales_ES
dc.subjectseasonal predictiones_ES
dc.subjectprecipitation eventses_ES
dc.subjectPrecipitaciónes_ES
dc.subject551.6 Climatología y estado atmosférico
dc.titleSeasonal prediction of extreme precipitation events and frequency of rainy days over Costa Rica, Central America, using Canonical Correlation Analysises_ES
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlees_ES
dc.typeArtículo científicoes_ES
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/adgeo-33-41-2013
dc.description.procedenceUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)es_ES
dc.identifier.codproyecto805-A7-002
dc.identifier.codproyecto805-A8-606
dc.identifier.codproyecto805-A9-532
dc.identifier.codproyecto808-A9-070


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