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dc.creatorHidalgo León, Hugo G.
dc.creatorAlfaro Martínez, Eric J.
dc.description.abstractA review of a series of articles related to the use of General Circulation Models (GCMs) projections for characterizing future climate changes in Central America are presented. Previous work using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP3) models showed that aridity and drought (reflected for example in reductions in runoff, streamflow, and precipitation) will be more frequent in the future under low and high emission scenarios (B1 and A2). Data from 107 GCM runs from the CMIP5 version, were evaluated and ranked according to their skill in reproducing observed climatological temperature and precipitation patterns, as well as realistic El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) precipitation teleconnection patterns. The best 14 model runs were used in a projection of precipitation and temperature changes for the mid-century horizon. It is shown that for two forcing scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 the northern (southern) part of Central America will be drier (wetter) in the future than the baseline (historical) scenario. This is important, as the north-south socioeconomic contrast suggests that northern countries will suffer the most as a result of climate change, due to increased social vulnerabilities and aridity. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet (an important feature of the regional climate) show little change at mid-century horizons. The most significant changes for the mid-summer drought (MSD) in the future are for the duration, which is projected to increase by an average of over a week, and the MSD minimum precipitation, which is projected to decrease.es_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B7-286]/UCR/Costa Ricaes_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B7-507]/UCR/Costa Ricaes_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-810]/UCR/Costa Ricaes_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B8-766]/UCR/Costa Ricaes_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B9-454]/UCR/Costa Ricaes_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A4-906]/UCR/Costa Ricaes_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipConsejo Nacional para Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas/[805-B7-507]/CONICIT/Costa Ricaes_ES
dc.description.sponsorshipMinisterio de Ciencia, Tecnología y Telecomunicaciones/[805-B7-507]/MICITT/Costa Ricaes_ES
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional*
dc.sourceScenarios Forum 2019, Universidad de Denver en Denver, Colorado.es_ES
dc.subjectModelo Climáticoes_ES
dc.subjectCambio climáticoes_ES
dc.subjectProyección climáticaes_ES
dc.subject551.6 Climatología y estado atmosféricoes_ES
dc.titleCMIP5 climate change hydroclimatic projections for Central Americaes_ES
dc.typepóster de congreso
dc.description.procedenceUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)es_ES
dc.description.procedenceUCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Ciencias Básicas::Facultad de Ciencias::Escuela de Físicaes_ES
dc.description.procedenceUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR)es_ES

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional