Universidad de Costa Rica
  • Sobre Kérwá
  • Acceso Abierto
  • Cómo Depositar
  • Políticas
  • Contacto
    • español
    • English
  • English 
    • español
    • English
  • Login
View Item 
  •   Kérwá Home
  • Investigación
  • Ciencias básicas
  • Meteorología
  • View Item
  •   Kérwá Home
  • Investigación
  • Ciencias básicas
  • Meteorología
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Aridity Trends in Central America: A Spatial Correlation Analysis

artículo científico
Thumbnail
View/Open
Artículo científico Alfaro-Córdoba, Hidalgo y Alfaro (2020) (3.352Mb)
Date
2020-04-23
Author
Alfaro Córdoba, Marcela
Hidalgo León, Hugo G.
Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.
Metadata
Show full item record
Abstract
Trend analyses are common in several types of climate change studies. In many cases, finding evidence that the trends are different from zero in hydroclimate variables is of particular interest. However, when estimating the confidence interval of a set of hydroclimate stations or gridded data the spatial correlation between can affect the significance assessment using for example traditional non-parametric and parametric methods. For this reason, Monte Carlo simulations are needed in order to generate maps of corrected trend significance. In this article, we determined the significance of trends in aridity, modeled runoff using the Variable Infiltration Capacity Macroscale Hydrological model, Hagreaves potential evapotranspiration (PET) and near-surface temperature in Central America. Linear-regression models were fitted considering that the predictor variable is the time variable (years from 1970 to 1999) and predictand variable corresponds to each of the previously mentioned hydroclimate variables. In order to establish if the temporal trends were significantly different from zero, a Mann Kendall and a Monte Carlo test were used. The spatial correlation was calculated first to correct the variance of each trend. It was assumed in this case that the trends form a spatial stochastic process that can be modeled as such. Results show that the analysis considering the spatial correlation proposed here can be used for identifying those extreme trends. However, a set of variables with strong spatial correlation such as temperature can have robust and widespread significant trends assuming independence, but the vast majority of the stations can still fail the Monte Carlo test. We must be vigilant of the statistically robust changes in key primary parameters such as temperature and precipitation, which are the driving sources of hydrological alterations that may affect social and environmental systems in the future.
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10669/80978
External link to the item
doi:10.3390/atmos11040427
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/4/427
Collections
  • Meteorología [351]



  • Repositorios universitarios

  • Repositorio del SIBDI-UCR
  • Biblioteca Digital del CIICLA
  • Repositorio Documental Rafael Obregón Loría (CIHAC)
  • Biblioteca Digital Carlos Melendez (CIHAC)
  • Repositorio de Fotografías
  • Colección de videos de UPA-VAS
  • Sitios recomendados

  • Buscador regional de LA Referencia
  • Buscador del Open ROAR
  • Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO)
  • Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
  • Redalyc
  • Redes sociales

  • facebook.com/repositoriokerwa
  • @Ciencia_UCR
  • Sobre Kérwá
  • Acceso Abierto
  • Cómo depositar
  • Políticas
Contact Us | Send Feedback
Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Costa Rica. Algunos derechos reservados. Este repositorio funciona con DSpace.
 

 

Browse

All of KérwáCommunities & CollectionsTitlesAuthorsSubjectsProcedenceTypeThis CollectionTitlesAuthorsSubjectsProcedenceType

My Account

LoginRegister

  • Repositorios universitarios

  • Repositorio del SIBDI-UCR
  • Biblioteca Digital del CIICLA
  • Repositorio Documental Rafael Obregón Loría (CIHAC)
  • Biblioteca Digital Carlos Melendez (CIHAC)
  • Repositorio de Fotografías
  • Colección de videos de UPA-VAS
  • Sitios recomendados

  • Buscador regional de LA Referencia
  • Buscador del Open ROAR
  • Scientific Electronic Library Online (SciELO)
  • Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ)
  • Redalyc
  • Redes sociales

  • facebook.com/repositoriokerwa
  • @Ciencia_UCR
  • Sobre Kérwá
  • Acceso Abierto
  • Cómo depositar
  • Políticas
Contact Us | Send Feedback
Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Costa Rica. Algunos derechos reservados. Este repositorio funciona con DSpace.