The Mesoamerican mid-summer drought: the impact of its definition on occurrences and recent changes
artículo original
Fecha
2022Autor
Maurer, Edwin P.
Stewart Frey, Iris T.
Arechiga, Kenneth Joseph
Hidalgo León, Hugo G.
Metadatos
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The mid-summer drought, veranillo or canícula, is
a phenomenon experienced in many areas, including Mexico,
Central America, and the Caribbean. It generally is experienced as reduced rainfall in July–August, in the middle of the
typical rainy season (May–September). Many past studies
have attempted to quantify changes in mid-summer drought
characteristics during the recent past or for future climate
projections. To do this, objective definitions of a mid-summer
drought’s occurrence, strength, and duration have been developed by many researchers. In this effort we adopt a recent
set of definitions and examine the impact of varying these
on the characterization of mid-summer droughts and the detected changes over the past 4 decades. We find the selection
of a minimum intensity threshold has a dramatic effect on
the results of both the area considered as experiencing a midsummer drought and the changes detected in the recent historical record. The intensity chosen can affect both the magnitude and direction of changes reported in the recent observed record. Further, we find that the typical mid-summer
drought pattern may not be occurring during the time it has
historically; whether examining past or future changes or developing improved seasonal forecasts, the non-stationarity of
its timing should be accommodated.
External link to the item
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1425-2022Colecciones
- Meteorología [501]