Associations of decadal to multidecadal sea-surface temperature variability with Upper Colorado River flow
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Authors
McCabe, Gregory J.
Betancourt, Julio L.
Hidalgo León, Hugo G.
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Abstract
The relations of decadal to multidecadal (D2M) variability in global sea-surface temperatures (SSTs)
with D2M variability in the flow of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) are examined for the years 1906-
2003. Results indicate that D2M variability of SSTs in the North Atlantic, North Pacific, tropical Pacific, and
Indian Oceans is associated with D2M variability of the UCRB. A principal components analysis (with varimax
rotation) of detrended and 11-year smoothed global SSTs indicates that the two leading rotated principal components
(RPCs) explain 56% of the variability in the transformed SST data. The first RPC (RPC1) strongly reflects
variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the second RPC (RPC2) represents variability
of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Ocean, and Indian Ocean SSTs. Results indicate that
SSTs in the North Atlantic Ocean (RPC1) explain as much of the D2M variability in global SSTs as does the
combination of Indian and Pacific Ocean variability (RPC2). These results suggest that SSTs in all of the oceans
have some relation with flow of the UCRB, but the North Atlantic may have the strongest and most consistent
association on D2M time scales. Hydroclimatic persistence on these time scales introduces significant nonstationarity
in mean annual streamflow, with critical implications for UCRB water resource management.
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Keywords
Colorado River, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Decadal Variability
Citation
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2007.00015.x/abstract;jsessionid=2299544E0860D88289B2A75E8026BB56.f02t02