El efecto sucesor y el proceso de integración generacional: Temas clave en la sucesión familiar agrícola
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Fecha
2020-06
Tipo
artículo original
Autores
Rodríguez Lizano, Víctor
Montero Vega, Mercedes
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Resumen
Este estudio examina el efecto sucesor y el Proceso
de Integración Generacional (PIG) con el fin
de aportar información relevante en el camino de
entender mejor la sucesión generacional agrícola.
El estudio se llevó a cabo en fincas hortícolas familiares
en Zarcero, Costa Rica. Se realizaron 126
encuestas en finca entre enero y mayo de 2019.
Para cuantificar el efecto sucesor, se generaron
tres perfiles de finca según probabilidad de sucesión
(baja, media y alta). Así mismo se cuantificó
el comportamiento de la producción para cada
finca en los últimos cinco años (disminuido, igual,
aumentado). Esto permitió a través una prueba
chi cuadrado determinar el comportamiento de
la producción de las fincas según su probabilidad
de sucesión. Por otro lado, se acotó el PIG a seis
acciones claves identificadas en la literatura. Dichas
acciones se cuantificaron y se corrieron dos
modelos por medio de Mínimos Cuadrados Ordinarios
(MCO), en los cuales se utilizaron variables
socioeconómicas y psicológicas como factores
independientes. Con respecto al efecto sucesor,
se encontró que fincas que presentan un sucesor
claramente definido (probabilidad de sucesión
alta), son más propensas a presentar incrementos
de su producción que aquellas que por el contrario
no poseen un sucesor claro o cuyo estado de
sucesión aún no está definido. Con respecto al PIG,
el género del sucesor y variables proxy de riqueza
poseen los coeficientes más altos dentro de las
variables socioeconómicas que explican el PIG. Se
observa que la variable psicológica “intención” es
la que mayor correlación presenta con el PIG y una
de las que mejor explica el mismo. Se demostró
por lo tanto, que poseer un sucesor identificado es
clave para la competitividad y sostenibilidad de las
fincas familiares. Así mismo, el enfoque tradicionalista
donde se trata de explicar el PIG o la sucesión
por medio de variables socioeconómicas, arroja
valores bajos de explicación (R2:0,45) debido a su
enfoque reduccionista. Los hallazgos dan paso a
una nueva tendencia de investigación relacionada,
donde las variables psicológicas, culturales y la
economía conductual parecen ser opciones novedosas
y las más atinentes al tema..
This study examines the successor effect and the Generational Integration Process (GIP) in order to generate relevant information on the way to better understand succession process in agriculture. The study was carried out on horticultural family farms in Zarcero, Costa Rica. 126 interviews were conducted between January and May 2019. In order to quantify the successor effect, three farm profiles were generated according to the probability of succession (low, medium and high). Likewise, it was quantified the behavior of the last five years farm`s production (decreased, equal, increased). Through a chi square test it was determine the linkage of the behavior of the production of the farms with the probability of succession. On the other hand, the GIP was quantified using six key actions which were identified amongst the literature. Two Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models were conducted in which socioeconomic and psychological variables were taken as independent factors. Regarding the successor effect, it was found that farms that have an identified successor (high succession probability), are more likely to show increases in their production during the last five years. The opposite can be observed in farms where succession status is not yet defined. Regarding the GIP, the gender of the successor and proxy variables of wealth, show the highest coefficients within the socioeconomic variables. The psychological variable “intention” shows the highest correlation with the GIP and is one of the explanatory factor that best fit. Having an identified successor is a key factor to improve productivity, competitiveness and sustainability of family farms, likewise, we showed that the traditionalist approach where GIP and succession are tried to be explained by means of socioeconomic variables, yields low explanatory values (R2: 0, 45). This results leaves room to a new strand of related research, where psychological variables and behavioral economics seem to be novel options and the approaches that best suits the subject..
This study examines the successor effect and the Generational Integration Process (GIP) in order to generate relevant information on the way to better understand succession process in agriculture. The study was carried out on horticultural family farms in Zarcero, Costa Rica. 126 interviews were conducted between January and May 2019. In order to quantify the successor effect, three farm profiles were generated according to the probability of succession (low, medium and high). Likewise, it was quantified the behavior of the last five years farm`s production (decreased, equal, increased). Through a chi square test it was determine the linkage of the behavior of the production of the farms with the probability of succession. On the other hand, the GIP was quantified using six key actions which were identified amongst the literature. Two Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models were conducted in which socioeconomic and psychological variables were taken as independent factors. Regarding the successor effect, it was found that farms that have an identified successor (high succession probability), are more likely to show increases in their production during the last five years. The opposite can be observed in farms where succession status is not yet defined. Regarding the GIP, the gender of the successor and proxy variables of wealth, show the highest coefficients within the socioeconomic variables. The psychological variable “intention” shows the highest correlation with the GIP and is one of the explanatory factor that best fit. Having an identified successor is a key factor to improve productivity, competitiveness and sustainability of family farms, likewise, we showed that the traditionalist approach where GIP and succession are tried to be explained by means of socioeconomic variables, yields low explanatory values (R2: 0, 45). This results leaves room to a new strand of related research, where psychological variables and behavioral economics seem to be novel options and the approaches that best suits the subject..
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Palabras clave
Agricultura familiar, Horticultura, Transferencia intergeneracional, Modelaje econométrico, Planificación agrícola, Family farm, Horticulture, Intergenerational transfer, Econometric modelling, Agricultural planning