Un modelo teórico de reasignación de recursos ante un shock de demanda turística
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Authors
Rojas, Diego
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Universidad de Costa Rica
Abstract
Description
Este trabajo analiza la relevancia de la actividad turística y su posible impacto sobre la economía costarricense, desde un punto de vista teórico. La ausencia de estudios formales cercanos a la realidad costarricense, y la utilización de políticas e incentivos para la promoción del turismo hacen necesaria esta investigación. Primero, se analizan los diferentes modelos que se han desarrollado en la literatura. Luego se construye un modelo que se acerca a las condiciones de la economía de Costa Rica. La construcción de dicho modelo es el principal objetivo de esta investigación. De forma específica, se tiene por objetivo discutir las siguientes preguntas: 1) ¿Cuál es el posible resultado sobre la producción interna, de largo plazo, de un aumento del gasto de los turistas?, 2) ¿En el largo plazo, qué sectores pueden ver aumentada su producción y que sectores pueden verla disminuida ante un aumento del gasto de los turistas? y, 3) ¿Cuál es el comportamiento esperado de los precios relativos, de largo plazo, ante un aumento del gasto de los turistas?
This paper analyzes the relevance and possible impact of tourism on Costa Rican economy, from a theoretical point of view. The absence of formal studies assuming conditions close to the Costa Rican economy and the wide application of incentives in this nation to promote tourism prove this research relevant. First, the different models proposed in the literature are analyzed. Secondly, a model close to Costa Rican conditions is developed. The development of such model is the main objective of this paper. Specifically, the objective of this model is to shed some light on the following questions: 1) What is the possible impact on domestic production –in the long run- of an permanent increase in tourism demand for domestic goods?, 2) In the long run, what sectors might increase their production and what sectors might experience a decrease in production before a tourism demand increase? and, 3) What is the expected behavior of relative prices –in the long run- before an increase in tourism demand?
This paper analyzes the relevance and possible impact of tourism on Costa Rican economy, from a theoretical point of view. The absence of formal studies assuming conditions close to the Costa Rican economy and the wide application of incentives in this nation to promote tourism prove this research relevant. First, the different models proposed in the literature are analyzed. Secondly, a model close to Costa Rican conditions is developed. The development of such model is the main objective of this paper. Specifically, the objective of this model is to shed some light on the following questions: 1) What is the possible impact on domestic production –in the long run- of an permanent increase in tourism demand for domestic goods?, 2) In the long run, what sectors might increase their production and what sectors might experience a decrease in production before a tourism demand increase? and, 3) What is the expected behavior of relative prices –in the long run- before an increase in tourism demand?
Keywords
TURISMO, BIENES NO TRANSABLES, BIENES TRANSABLES, APRECIACIÓN DEL TIPO DE CAMBIO, TOURISM, TRADABLES, NON-TRADABLES, EXCHANGE RATE APPRECIATION