Meteorología

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Assessing the impact of tropical cyclones on economic sectors in Costa Rica, Central America
(2024-10-24) Quesada Román, Adolfo; Hidalgo León, Hugo G.; Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.
Tropical cyclones (TC) pose a persistent natural hazard to Costa Rica. Exposure to natural hazards, such as mass movements and floods, is compounded by a growing urban population and inadequate land use planning. This study conducted a comprehensive analysis of the economic impacts of TC of Costa Rica from Hurricane Joan in 1988 to Hurricane Eta in 2020, assessing the impact by municipality and economic sector using baseline information of the Ministry of National Planning and Economic Policy. According to the study, road infrastructure (933.8 US million), agriculture (280.5 US million), river rehabilitation (153.96 US million), housing 98.26 (US million), and health (81.74 US million) were among the sectors most severely affected by TC over the past 30 years. The Pacific basin municipalities in Costa Rica were found to be the most vulnerable, primarily due to the indirect impacts of TC. The study's results offer useful information on the economic sectors and municipalities that are most exposed from TC in Costa Rica and provide a replicable methodology for other regions and countries facing similar tropical phenomena.
Semblanza del Prof. José Fidel Tristán Fernández
(2024) Díaz Bolaños, Ronald Eduardo
El presente trabajo constituye una semblanza acerca de la figura del Prof. José Fidel Tristán Fernández (1874-1932), profesor y científico costarricense que vivió una etapa de intenso desarrollo científico en Costa Rica durante el período de consolidación del Estado liberal, entre finales del siglo XIX e inicios del siglo XX. Tristán legó para la posteridad una valiosa colección de documentos científicos resguardada por el Archivo Nacional de Costa Rica, así como numerosos artículos publicados en revistas nacionales y extranjeras. Esta semblanza es producto de una revisión bibliográfica sobre textos publicados e inéditos relacionados con la figura del profesor Tristán y se divide en cuatro secciones, la primera sobre aspectos biográficos, la segunda el contexto histórico-científico en el que se desenvolvió, la tercera sobre su quehacer científico y la última respecto a su legado.
Caracterización climática de la lluvia del Pacífico Norte de Costa Rica usando análogos construidos
(2024-10-01) Ugalde Castro, Kendall; Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.; Hidalgo León, Hugo G.; Maldonado Mora, Tito José
Se determina el inicio y término de la estación lluviosa (IELL y TELL respectivamente), además de la duración de la estación seca y lluviosa (DES y DELL respectivamente), con datos de precipitación en rejilla sobre Guanacaste para el periodo 1950-2020 conformado por el acople de dos conjuntos de datos, el primero es el conjunto Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) y el segundo siendo el reanálisis ERA5 al que se le aplicó un ajuste de escala para extender la cobertura temporal de los datos de CHIRPS. Se caracterizó su IELL, TELL, DELL y DES con estadísticos como la mediana, desviación estándar, rango inter cuartil y tendencias. Además, se relacionaron con fuentes de variabilidad climática como El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENOS), la temperatura superficial del océano Atlántico Tropical Norte (ATN) y la corriente en chorro de bajo nivel del Caribe (CLLJ, por sus siglas en inglés). Los datos representan adecuadamente la climatología del IELL, TELL, DELL, DES y las precipitaciones de la región, además de capturar la variabilidad asociada a la CLLJ y al acople de los océanos (ATN-ENOS), pero no la asociada al ATN y ENOS individualmente. Aunque no se pudo determinar si esto se debe a los datos de ERA5 o al método de reducción de escala usado, por lo que se recomienda verificar si ERA5 captura tal variabilidad oceánica al realizar el mismo análisis en un periodo de tiempo de 1980-2020 donde se tiene mayor disponibilidad de observaciones como estaciones meteorológicas o CHIRPS que ya ha sido validada.
Comparison of indicators to evaluate the performance of climate models
(2024-10-07) Gómez Camacho, Mario Javier; Barboza Chinchilla, Luis Alberto; Hidalgo León, Hugo G.; Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.
The evaluation of climate models is a crucial step in climate studies. It consists of quantifying the resemblance of model outputs to reference data to identify models with superior capacity to replicate specific climate variables. Clearly, the choice of the evaluation indicator significantly impacts the results, underscoring the importance of selecting an indicator that properly captures the characteristics of a "good model". This study examines the behavior of six indicators, considering spatial correlation, distribution mean, variance, and shape. A new multi-component measure was selected based on these criteria to assess the performance of 48 CMIP6 models in reproducing the annual seasonal cycle of precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection patterns in Central America. The top six models were determined using multi-criteria methods. It was found that even the best model reproduces one derived climatic variable poorly in this region. The proposed measure and selection method can contribute to enhancing the accuracy of climatological research based on climate models.
Ciclones tropicales en el mar Caribe, el océano Pacífico tropical del este y el Atlántico norte en el contexto del calentamiento global 1966-2023: distribuciones estacionales y tendencias temporales
(2024-08-13) Amador Astúa, Jorge Alberto; Calderón Solera, Blanca
Estudio sobre ciclones tropicales en las regiones del mar Caribe, el Océano Pacífico tropical del este y el Atlántico norte. El análisis se enmarca en el contexto del calentamiento global, tomando en cuenta distribuciones estacionales y tendencias temporañes desde 1966 hasta 2023.
Central America [in State of the Climate in 2023]
(2024-08) Hidalgo León, Hugo G.; Amador, Jorge Astúa; Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.; Calderón Solera, Blanca; Mora Sandí, Natali Pamela
For this region, nine stations from five countries were analyzed . The station distribution is representative of the relevant seasonal and intraseasonal regimes of precipitation (Amador 1998; Magaña et al. 1999; Amador et al. 2016a,b), wind (Amador 2008), and temperature (Hidalgo et al. 2019) on the Caribbean and Pacific slopes of Central America (CA). Precipitation, temperature, and regional wind data for the stations analyzed were provided either by CA National Weather Services (CA-NWS), NOAA, or the University of Costa Rica; in some cases, missing daily precipitation data were filled with the nearest grid point data from the Climate Hazards and Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset (CHIRPS; Funk et al. 2015). Anomalies are reported using a 1991–2020 base period and were calculated from data provided by CA-NWS. The precise methodologies used for all variables are described by Amador et al. (2011). The Puerto San José station in Guatemala, used in past reports, was substituted with the nearby Montufar station due to lack of data in 2023.
Proyecciones de cambio climático en eventos extremos para el cantón Dota
(2024-08-13) Hidalgo León, Hugo G.; Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.; Pérez Briceño, Paula Marcela; Calderón Solera, Blanca; Naranjo Castillo, Vladimir
El cantón Dota en San José empieza a enfrentar problemas de disponibilidad de agua, por lo que en esta investigación se modelaron eventos extremos de precipitación y temperatura bajo el escenario de cambio climático pesimista de concentraciones, el cual podrá utilizarse como insumo del análisis de riesgo climático. Como una forma de determinar la oferta de agua dentro del cantón, se estimó el balance hídrico para la cuenca madre. Estos insumos pueden ser utilizados por los habitantes del cantón y funcionarios de instituciones para la toma de decisiones en el futuro con relación con el tema del agua.
Central American climate extreme trends: A statistical analysis of CLIMDEX indices
(2024-07-19) Alfaro Córdoba, Marcela; Mora Sandí, Natali Pamela; Hidalgo León, Hugo G.; Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.
Precipitation and temperature extremes from daily data indexed using the CLIMDEX methodology were calculated over the Central American region. The data comprises the coarsened versions of the Climate Hazards and Infrared Precipitation with stations (CHIRPs) and the corresponding data set for temperature (CHIRTs) from the year 1981 to 2020 and 1983 to 2016, respectively. The objective is to detect trend patterns in extremes in recent periods, use novel statistical techniques for assessing the trend significance and study the monthly and annual trends for each of the indices. Trends of extreme temperature indices show more consistent, robust and widespread significant results according with the observed warming of the region. Significant extreme precipitation indices trends are more localized, and therefore harder to analyse, but it seems that one robust result from several indices is the trend toward more intense extreme precipitation events in Costa Rica. The findings of this work suggest possible impacts in human and environmental systems across the region.
Ciencia Huracán. Materiales gráficos: Ciencia Huracán (CIGEFI, UCREA)
(2024) Pérez Briceño. Paula Marcela; Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.; Hidalgo León, Hugo G.; Quesada Román, Adolfo; Arias, Maricruz; Céspedes, Rosa; Berrocal, Sebastián; Tencio, Alexander; Chinchilla, Allan; Cruz García, Daniel
Se presenta un conjunto de materiales gráficos generados a partir del trabajo realizado por el proyecto Ciencia Huracán, del Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI), dentro del espacio de Estudios Avanzados de la Universidad de Costa Rica. Estos abordan, a partir principalmente de infografías, temas como la educación ambiental, la meteorología y la concienciación sobre el clima; desde explicaciones sobre ciclones tropicales hasta conceptos sobre huracanes, modelos climáticos y eventos ambientales importantes. Las publicaciones tratan de ofrecer una perspectiva educativa en palabras simples y sencillas para que cualquier persona, inclusive sin conocimiento acerca de Ciclones Tropicales, pueda comprender el contenido. El material gráfico ha sido divulgado a través de las redes sociales asociadas al proyecto.
Data and code article Climatic Change
(2024) Hidalgo León, Hugo G.; Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)
Data and code article Climatic Change, (2024).
Observed interannual variability and projected scenarios of drought in the Chorotega region, Costa Rica
(2024) Ríos Solano, Melissa; Durán Quesada, Ana M.; Birkel Dostal, Christian; Hidalgo León, Hugo G.; Cabos Narvaez, William David; Sein, D. V.
Los análisis del desarrollo de la sequía en la región Chorotega basados en observaciones, muestran que, a pesar de que el área es relativamente pequeña, se presenta una variabilidad espacial en la sequía agrícola. Sin embargo, la ausencia de información de radiación neta dificulta la capacidad de proporcionar estima-ciones fiables de evapotranspiración (ET), afectando la evaluación de la ocurrencia de la sequía, ya que su propagación a través del sistema hidrológico es muy sensible al método de estimación de ET. La precisión de los productos satelitales del Índice de Vegetación Normalizada (NDVI, por su sigla en inglés) y la falta de información sobre riego en las áreas agrícolas limita la capacidad de establecer adecuadamente una relación entre la sequía y la respuesta de la vegetación. Con base en las observaciones, el déficit de precipitación más pronunciado ocurre entre septiembre y octubre (–100 mm en promedio), demostrando que los cambios en la circulación de gran escala son responsables de la sequía extrema en la región. Según estudios previos, El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENOS) modula la variabilidad de la sequía. En su fase cálida, ENSO se favorece el desarrollo de la sequía, especialmente entre agosto y octubre con correlaciones superiores a –0.6. Las proyecciones de cambio climático en los escenarios RCP4.5 y RCP8.5 sugieren una intensificación de los eventos secos en la región Chorotega a mediados de siglo, siendo la cuenca Tempisque-Bebedero la zona más afectada en términos de disminución de las precipitaciones y el calentamiento. Se proyecta un aumento de 1 ºC en la temperatura media y de hasta 2 ºC para la temperatura máxima y mínima para 2050, y una disminución de 400 a 800 mm en la precipitación anual en ambos escenarios.
Challenges for climate change adaptation in Latin America and the Caribbean region
(2024-04-23) Cavazos Pérez, María Tereza; Bettolli, Maria Laura; Campbell, Donovan; Sanchez Rodríguez, Roberto A.; Mycoo, Michelle; Arias, Paola; Rivera, Juan; Simoes Reboita, Michelle; Gulizia, Carla; Hidalgo León, Hugo G.; Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.; Stephenson, Tannecia S.; Sörensson, Anna A.; Cerezo Mota, Ruth; Castellanos, Edwin; Ley, Debora; Mahon, Roché
The limited success of international efforts to reduce global warming at levels established in the Paris Agreement, and the increasing frequency and strength of climate impacts, highlight the urgent need of adaptation, particularly in developing countries. Unfortunately, current levels of adaptation initiatives are not enough to counteract the observed impacts and projected risks from climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In this paper, we review and highlight relevant issues that have limited the capacity to transform climate knowledge and parties’ ambitions into action in the region. Current vulnerabilities and climatic impact-drivers in LAC are diverse, complex, and region-specific and their effects are expected to be exacerbated by climate change. However, the advancement of regional and domestic climate agendas has been hindered by scientific gaps, political support, institutional capacity, and financial, technical, human, and economic limitations that are common to many LAC countries. Transforming climate data into multidimensional metrics with useful thresholds for different sectors and understanding their contribution for feasible adaptation strategies are delayed by regional and local conundrums such as lack of inclusive governance, data availability, equity, justice, and transboundary issues. We discuss ways to move forward to develop local and regional climate resilient development actions and a more sustainable future in LAC. The climate science community in LAC needs to strengthen its local, national, and international connections and with decision/policymakers and society to establish a three-way engagement by proposing suitable adaptation actions and international negotiations to reduce the risks and vulnerability associated with climate extremes, climate variability and climate change in the region. The discussions and insights presented in this work could be extrapolated to other countries in the Global South.
Microgravity monitoring at Poás volcano 1983-1986, Costa Rica
(1987) Rymer, H.; Morales, L. D.; Brown, G. C.
The discovery during a two month observation period at Poas volcano in 1983 of cyclin changes in microgravity associated with vesiculation cycles deep in the magma column led to a more detailed investigation in 1985. Statistical analysis has revealed that superimposed on the deep cycles there is a second effect. This is derived from the largest and best constrained gravity variations wich occur locally at stations in the north of the active crater. Concurret microelevation observations have revealed that there are no significant relative elevation changes in the summit area of Poas, and therefore the gravity changes must be caused by sub-surface density variations. This and the tight spatial distribution of the largest microgravity changes limits the causative sub-surface density changes to a shallow depth. It is deduced that the vertical migration of the water/steam interface, about 30 m below the crater lake is the principal cause of the largest gravity changes in the active crater. These variations, which occur in the 200-300m wide permeable, most recently-reactivated cylindrical feeder pipe beneath the crater lake, are superimposed on the broader vesiculation-induced density changes, ocurrin below 500 m in the 1 km wide partially-molden magma column (inferred from the 1983 data set). These results clearly show that important information on the behavior of active but apparently stable volcanoes may be derived by microgravity monitoring.
Factores sociales, políticos y económicos en el desarrollo de una comunidad fronteriza: Santa Cecilia de La Cruz, Costa Rica (1900-2023)
(2024-12) DÍaz Bolaños, Ronald; Arias Campos, Luis Diego; Madriz Sojo, Gabriel
El presente artículo pretende estudiar en perspectiva histórica los factores sociales, políticos y económicos que configuraron la comunidad fronteriza de Santa Cecilia, del cantón costarricense de La Cruz, desde inicios del siglo XX hasta el presente. Para ello se emplea una investigación bibliográfica basada en fuentes primarias (tanto hemerográficas, de archivo, como orales) y en literatura especializada. Se tiene por hallazgo que la demarcación limítrofe entre los Estados nacionales de Costa Rica y Nicaragua, así como factores geográficos y ambientales que permitieron acceso a recursos y medios de subsistencia para sus primeros habitantes, condicionaron la conformación del poblado y su sostenimiento, además de la influencia ejercida por las agendas políticas de dichos Estados y los intereses de actores extranjeros inclusive, en una zona en que las identidades y disputas territoriales confluyen. Se tienen además como puntos de inflexión para el desarrollo del asentamiento la implementación de actividades ganaderas, citrícolas y también algunos conflictos históricos.
Caracterización climática y análisis de mecanismos moduladores del descenso de las lluvias en la vertiente Caribe de América Central durante septiembre-octubre
(2023-09-19) Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.; Alvarado Gamboa, Luis Fernando; Fallas López, Berny G.; Mora Sandí, Natali Pamela; Hidalgo León, Hugo G.
[Introducción]: La vertiente Caribe de América Central se encuentra a barlovento de los vientos alisios asociados con la Alta Subtropical del Atlántico Norte y presenta un ciclo anual de precipitación bimodal, donde se observa un mínimo relativo en los meses de septiembre y octubre. [Objetivo]: Caracterizar el descenso observado en las lluvias en esta región en ese bimestre, estimando, para cada evento, las variables asociadas con los valores del día del inicio, día del mínimo, día del final, duración, intensidad y magnitud, en el periodo 1979-2010. [Metodología]: Se usaron 31 registros diarios de estaciones pluviométricas. Se examinó, en cada una de ellas, los meses de julio a noviembre, para encontrar los valores del mínimo, la fecha del mínimo, del inicio y del final, duración e intensidad. Se exploró la ocurrencia de alguna tendencia temporal o espacial en las características de los eventos. Por último, se revisaron diferentes índices climáticos y fuentes documentales para identificar las posibles causas sinópticas de los descensos más fuertes en las lluvias. [Resultados]: El inicio de los eventos se observó alrededor del 3 de septiembre, su mínimo el 23 de septiembre y el final 12 de octubre, con una duración aproximada de 39 días. Los eventos tienden a suceder primeramente en las estaciones ubicadas al noroeste del istmo. Los eventos más secos sucedieron bajo condiciones propicias para la ocurrencia de vientos con componente suroeste-oeste sobre la región. [Conclusiones]: El conocimiento sobre estas características de la precipitación ayuda en la planificación de sectores socioeconómicos claves en América Central ante eventuales eventos hidrometeorológicos adversos.
An application of Palmer's drougth index to a semi-arid tropical region
(1987) Suárez, María E.; Fernández Rojas, Walter; Hidalgo León, Hugo G.
Palmer's Drought Index (PDI) was applied to a semi-arid region in Costa Rica. In the computations of the water balance, two modificaions to Palmer´s method were made. Th e method of Hargreaves was used to obtain potential evapotranspiration and the procedure of Thornwaite and Mather to obtain potential runoff. The period analysis in the region was from june 1972 to december 1983 (i.e. 138 months), of which 32% had drought conditions, with 7% mild, 11% moderate, 11% severe, and 3% extreme droughts (according to Palmer´s classification). The values obtained for the PDI were tested against reports from the press concerning crop damage by droughts and very good agreement was found. The dependence of the PDI on the available water capacity of the soil and the potential evapotranspiration is also discussed.
Spatiotemporal variability of the rainy season in the Yucatan Peninsula
(2024-04-16) Romero H., David; Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.
The rainfall regime is a critical factor in the Yucatan Peninsula, as the spatial and multiannual variability of rainfall is a major concern, particularly for crops. Variability in the rainy season was examined considering the onset and demise of the annual rainy season, the total rain volume, the rainfall season duration and the intense precipitation events recorded in meteorological stations (1978–2020). We analysed individual time series and calculated the long-term trend. Additionally, we explored the relationship between each summer rainfall characteristic and several oceanographic indices using multivariate techniques. We also developed a Trans-Isthmic Index from the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. This index allows for determining the effect of the overall influence of the ocean on climate. The timeseries analysis revealed a high interannual variability and long-term positive trends concerning the duration of the rainy season with earlier onset and later demise, and the total rainfall volume and also a positive trend for the occurrence of heavy precipitation suggesting a shift in intra-annual patterns. Spatially, the analysis revealed clusters of stations with a similar variation, probably related to the AMO, NIÑO3.4 or TII indices. The spatial pattern was confirmed by analysing CHIRPS gridded precipitation data. Our results show that wetter conditions are associated with lower temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and warmer conditions in the Atlantic.
An integrated dynamic model for the volcanic activity at Poas volcano, Costa Rica
(1987) Casertano, L.; Borgia, A.; Cigolini, Corrado; Morales Matamoros, Luis Diego; Montero Pohly, Walter; Gómez, M.; Fernández, J. F.
A dynamic model for the activity of Poas Volcano, Costa Rica, is proposed. Data collected during a three-year period show that the volcanic processes occur within a small hydrothermal system. Heat is supplied by a magma body in the conduit and is transferred to the surface by fluid convection. Within a given volume of rock, pore pressure builds up due to the upward motion of fluids and the increase in vapor pressure when the temperature rises above the boiling point. Ultimately, the system becomes unstable when the pore pressure overcomes the total pressure. This leads to the assumption that the kinetic and thermal energies are proportional to the depth at which the mechanical equilibrium is disturbed. Laboratory experiments were performed by heating samples of the crater lake deposits. The preliminary results of these experiments show significant analogies with the low-energy activity of the volcano. Following this model we estimated that a phreatic explosion which reaches 200 m in height (comparable to the one observed by Francis et al. in 1978) originates at a depth of 70 m and a temperature of 180 ° C; these values agree with those reported in the literature. In addition, "magmatic" sulfur, which partitions into the rising hydrothermal fluids, reacts at lower temperature and higher _t"O2 to produce pockets of liquid sulfur in the conduit deposits and the lava dome. These pockets are subsequently erupted forming the pyroclastic sulfur.
Characterizing the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in the Costa Rican Eastern Tropical Pacific using in situ data from field campaigns
(2024-02) Rodríguez, Alejandro; Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.; Cortés Núñez, Jorge
For conservation and sustainable fisheries, it is important to characterize the Oxygen Minimum Zones or OMZ in and around the methane seeps of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP), Costa Rica, through the analysis of temperature, salinity, density, and oxygen profiles. The data used in this work were collected during several oceanographic research campaigns in the Pacific conti-nental margin and offshore of Costa Rica, between 2009 and 2019, using a CTDs, as the profiler of physical parameters of the water column. In general, it was observed that dissolved oxygen gradually decreases with depth to the thermocline, then its concentration decreases more rapidly and remains low, indicating the presence of the OMZ and tends to increase slightly at greater depths. Mean vertical extension of the OMZ near and around the seeps was 763 m and the mean depth for the minimum dissolved oxygen value was 393 m. Spatial differences of measurements taken at stations near the methane seeps were calculated with respect to the measurements at the station located above them. Overall, a greater variability of the oxygen anomalies was observed within the mixed layer, while under the thermocline their values remain stable and around zero.
Flood projections for selected Costa Rican main basins using CMIP6 climate models downscaled output in the HBV hydrological model for scenario SSP5-8.5
(2024) Hidalgo León, Hugo G.; Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.; Quesada Román, Adolfo
Estimates from 3 statistically downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) from version 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, namely the EC Earth3, GFDL ESM4 and MPI ESM1 2 HR are used in the HBV hydrological model to estimate design streamflow projections with 20, 50, and 100-year return periods for the selected main basins of Costa Rica. The changes in these streamflows were computed between the baseline period (1985–2015) and the mid-century projection (2035–2065) for the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The novelty resides in being the first study that explores the magnitude of climate changes in design flows of Costa Rica, a tropical country. Although, calibration and validation statistics are generally good for most of the basins, only around one quarter of the simulations reproduce the observed distribution of the 3-day annual maximum flows. Results show that the MPI model presents lower sensitivity with changes of different sign depending on the basin studied and the other two models suggest only significant increases in the design flow in most of the basins. Results of the model’s ensemble suggests a great concern, as there is a general increase in the design flows, and the magnitudes of the changes are large, especially in the Pacific slope.

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