Spatiotemporal variability of the rainy season in the Yucatan Peninsula

Abstract

The rainfall regime is a critical factor in the Yucatan Peninsula, as the spatial and multiannual variability of rainfall is a major concern, particularly for crops. Variability in the rainy season was examined considering the onset and demise of the annual rainy season, the total rain volume, the rainfall season duration and the intense precipitation events recorded in meteorological stations (1978–2020). We analysed individual time series and calculated the long-term trend. Additionally, we explored the relationship between each summer rainfall characteristic and several oceanographic indices using multivariate techniques. We also developed a Trans-Isthmic Index from the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. This index allows for determining the effect of the overall influence of the ocean on climate. The timeseries analysis revealed a high interannual variability and long-term positive trends concerning the duration of the rainy season with earlier onset and later demise, and the total rainfall volume and also a positive trend for the occurrence of heavy precipitation suggesting a shift in intra-annual patterns. Spatially, the analysis revealed clusters of stations with a similar variation, probably related to the AMO, NIÑO3.4 or TII indices. The spatial pattern was confirmed by analysing CHIRPS gridded precipitation data. Our results show that wetter conditions are associated with lower temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and warmer conditions in the Atlantic.