Cambios climáticos proyectados de modelos CMIP5 en La Cruz, Guanacaste, Costa Rica
Archivos
Fecha
2021
Tipo
artículo original
Autores
Hidalgo León, Hugo G.
Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.
Pérez Briceño, Paula Marcela
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Resumen
Introducción: La Cruz está localizada en el noroeste de
Costa Rica, y está caracterizada por una estación seca
bien definida y un clima tropical seco. Este cantón en los
últimos 45 años ha reportado impactos de eventos hidrometeorológicos, en particular los húmedos como las inundaciones que han afectado viviendas, calles y cultivos, pero
también algunas sequías han perjudicado a la población y
sus actividades.
Objetivo: El objetivo de este artículo es proveer información acerca de posibles cambios climáticos durante el siglo
XXI asociados con un escenario pesimista de emisiones en
el cantón de La Cruz en Guanacaste, Costa Rica.
Métodos: Se utilizó la base de datos DesInventar para
identificar los impactos y agruparlos según su mes de ocurrencia para relacionarlo con el régimen de precipitación.
Simulaciones cambiadas de escala del Proyecto de Intercomparación de Modelos Climáticos 5 (CMIP5) fueron
estados para simular cambios pasados y futuros (1979-
2099) en temperatura y precipitación. Adicionalmente, un
modelo hidrológico fue usado para calcular las proyecciones de escorrentía usando los datos meteorológicos.
Resultados: Los resultados mostraron que un futuro más
seco y caliente será característico del clima del siglo XXI,
especialmente después del 2040. La escorrentía se espera
que será reducida significativamente siguiendo las tendencias meteorológicas.
Conclusiones: Algunos de los impactos más recurrentes
históricamente son las inundaciones, daños a viviendas,
calles y cultivos, sin embargo, también se han registrado
algunas muertes en la zona. Se espera que una aridez mayor
estará presente en el futuro, afectando sistemas humanos y
ambientales.
Introduction: La Cruz is located in northwestern Costa Rica, and it is characterized by a dry tropical climate with a well-defined dry season. This municipality has reported many impacts of hydrometeorological events during the last 45 years, mostly associated with wet events such as floods that affected roads, housing, and crops; as well as some droughts that have impacted the population and their livelihoods. Objective: The objective of this article is to provide information regarding possible future climate changes during the 21st century associated with a pessimistic emission scenario in the municipality of La Cruz in Guanacaste, Costa Rica. Methods: We used DesInventar database to identify the hydrometeorological impacts in La Cruz and classified them by month. Downscaled simulations from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were used to simulate past and future changes (1979-2099) in temperature and precipitation. In addition, a hydrological model was used to calculate runoff projections from meteorological data. Results: Floods, and housing, roads and agricultural damages are the most recurrent impacts. In addition, some human deaths are reported during this time. Results show that a drier and warmer future will be characteristic of the climate in La Cruz in the 21st century, especially after 2040. Runoff is also expected to be reduced significantly following the meteorological trends. Conclusions: It is expected that higher aridity will be present in the future, affecting human and environmental systems.
Introduction: La Cruz is located in northwestern Costa Rica, and it is characterized by a dry tropical climate with a well-defined dry season. This municipality has reported many impacts of hydrometeorological events during the last 45 years, mostly associated with wet events such as floods that affected roads, housing, and crops; as well as some droughts that have impacted the population and their livelihoods. Objective: The objective of this article is to provide information regarding possible future climate changes during the 21st century associated with a pessimistic emission scenario in the municipality of La Cruz in Guanacaste, Costa Rica. Methods: We used DesInventar database to identify the hydrometeorological impacts in La Cruz and classified them by month. Downscaled simulations from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) were used to simulate past and future changes (1979-2099) in temperature and precipitation. In addition, a hydrological model was used to calculate runoff projections from meteorological data. Results: Floods, and housing, roads and agricultural damages are the most recurrent impacts. In addition, some human deaths are reported during this time. Results show that a drier and warmer future will be characteristic of the climate in La Cruz in the 21st century, especially after 2040. Runoff is also expected to be reduced significantly following the meteorological trends. Conclusions: It is expected that higher aridity will be present in the future, affecting human and environmental systems.
Descripción
Palabras clave
Cambio Climático, Impactos hidrometeorológicos, Temperatura, Precipitación, Corredor Seco Centroamericano, Municipio La Cruz, Costa Rica, Climate change, Hydrometeorological impacts, Temperature, Precipitation, Central American Dry Corridor