Estudio del inicio y término de la estación lluviosa en el Pacífico Norte de Costa Rica en el periodo 1981-2020. Parte 2, variabilidad climática
Fecha
2023-12
Tipo
artículo original
Autores
Ugalde Castro, Kendall
Alfaro Martínez, Eric J.
Hidalgo León, Hugo G.
Maldonado Mora, Tito José
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Resumen
El inicio y término de la estación lluviosa (IELL y TELL, respectivamente), así como de la duración de las estaciones seca y lluviosa (DES y DELL, respectivamente) sobre la provincia de Guanacaste puede ser afectada por diversas fuentes de variabilidad climática que modulan las precipitaciones en América Central. Se determina el IELL, TELL, DES y DELL, con datos de precipitación en rejilla sobre Guanacaste para el periodo 1981-2020 y se redujo su dimensionalidad mediante el análisis de Componentes Principales (CP). Se calcularon las correlaciones de Pearson entre las CP y sus respectivos índices, para estudiar las regiones que presentan mayor influencia de las CP. Estas CP se compararon con índices de fuentes de variabilidad climática como El Niño-Oscilación del Sur, la Oscilación Multidecenal del Atlántico y la corriente en chorro de bajo nivel del Caribe (CLLJ, por sus siglas en inglés). Un calentamiento (enfriamiento) relativo del Atlántico con respecto al Pacífico ecuatorial favorece IELL tempranos (tardíos), TELL tardíos (tempranos), DES cortas (largas) y DELL largas (cortas); mientras que un CLLJ intenso (débil) favorece IELL tardíos (tempranos), TELL tempranos (tardíos), DES largas (cortas) y DELL cortas (largas).
The onset and demise of the rainy season (IELL and TELL, respectively in Spanish), as well as the duration of the dry and rainy seasons (DES and DELL, respectively in Spanish) in the province of Guanacaste can be affected by various sources of climate variability that modulates rainfall in Central America. The IELL, TELL, DES and DELL are determined with gridded precipitation data over Guanacaste for the period 1981-2020 and their dimensionality was reduced using the Principal Components (PCs) analysis. The Pearson correlations between the PCs and their respective indexes were calculated to study the regions with the greatest influence of the PC. These PCs were compared with indices from climate variability sources such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ). A relative warming (cooling) of the Atlantic relative to the equatorial Pacific favors earlier (later) IELL, later (earlier) TELL, shorter (longer) DES, and longer (shorter) DELL. Conversely, a stronger (weaker) CLLJ favour later (earlier) IELL, earlier (later) TELL, longer (shorter) DES, and shorter (longer) DELL.
The onset and demise of the rainy season (IELL and TELL, respectively in Spanish), as well as the duration of the dry and rainy seasons (DES and DELL, respectively in Spanish) in the province of Guanacaste can be affected by various sources of climate variability that modulates rainfall in Central America. The IELL, TELL, DES and DELL are determined with gridded precipitation data over Guanacaste for the period 1981-2020 and their dimensionality was reduced using the Principal Components (PCs) analysis. The Pearson correlations between the PCs and their respective indexes were calculated to study the regions with the greatest influence of the PC. These PCs were compared with indices from climate variability sources such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ). A relative warming (cooling) of the Atlantic relative to the equatorial Pacific favors earlier (later) IELL, later (earlier) TELL, shorter (longer) DES, and longer (shorter) DELL. Conversely, a stronger (weaker) CLLJ favour later (earlier) IELL, earlier (later) TELL, longer (shorter) DES, and shorter (longer) DELL.
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CHIRPS, Duración de la estación seca y lluviosa, El Niño, Guanacaste, Oscilación multidecenal del Atlántico, Corriente en chorro de bajo nivel del Caribe, EL NIÑO, RAINY AND DRY SEASON DURATION