Effect on the international price of maize on the retail price of broiler chicken in Costa Rica
Fecha
2022-10-31
Tipo
artículo original
Autores
Paniagua Molina, Hernán Javier
Solórzano Thompson, Johanna
Barboza Navarro, David
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Resumen
Este artículo presenta los resultados de una investigación realizada con el objetivo de estimar el impacto de las variaciones del precio internacional del maíz en el precio interno de la carne de ave en Costa Rica. Para la transmisión del precio internacional al precio CIF de importación del maíz (ingrediente principal en la dieta de los pollos), se utilizó un modelo autorregresivo de rezagos distribuidos después de probar la cointegración de series de tiempo. El precio de venta al consumidor final se modeló con un modelo estructural de forma reducida. Los resultados muestran cómo el precio internacional del maíz tiene un impacto importante en la formación de los precios domésticos de la carne de pollo y requiere que este sea considerado en el diseño de políticas para reducir la dependencia del precio internacional, que incide negativamente en el precio en casos de alzas o sobresaltos inesperados.
This paper presents the results of an investigation carried out with the objective of estimating the impact of variations in maize international price on the poultry meat domestic price in Costa Rica. For the transmission of international price to CIF import price of maize (main ingredient in the chicken diet), a distributed lag autoregressive model was used after testing for cointegration of time series. The selling price to the final consumer was modeled with a reduced-form structural model. The results show how the international price of maize has an important impact on the formation of domestic chicken meat prices and requires that this be considered in the design of policies to reduce the dependence on the international price, which has a negative impact on the price in cases of unexpected increases or shocks.
This paper presents the results of an investigation carried out with the objective of estimating the impact of variations in maize international price on the poultry meat domestic price in Costa Rica. For the transmission of international price to CIF import price of maize (main ingredient in the chicken diet), a distributed lag autoregressive model was used after testing for cointegration of time series. The selling price to the final consumer was modeled with a reduced-form structural model. The results show how the international price of maize has an important impact on the formation of domestic chicken meat prices and requires that this be considered in the design of policies to reduce the dependence on the international price, which has a negative impact on the price in cases of unexpected increases or shocks.
Descripción
Palabras clave
Pollo de engorde, Modelos GARCH, Trasmisión de precios, Precios de materias primas, ECONOMETRICS, ARCH MODEL, Price transmission, STRUCTURAL MODEL