A geometrical description for interplanetary propagation of Earth-directed CMEs based on radiative proxies

Abstract

We present a 3D geometrical model to describe the propagation and expansion of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the interplanetary space based on radiative proxies to be implemented in previous procedures that use SXR and microwave emissions to estimate the Earth-directed CME propagation speed. We carefully selected a sample of 45 well-defined CME-ICME events to evaluate our model. We computed this 3D geometrical model for each event as a tool to improve the arrival time predictions based on radiative proxies. We conducted a different analysis for each radiative proxy: SXR emission and microwave emission at 9 GHz, and we compared the results separately with the observations by the Wind spacecraft. In general, the results showed that the implementation of our 3D geometrical model improves the predictions and provides an important complement to the arrival time prediction method based on radiative proxies, especially for CME events whose source origin were located at helio longitudes far from the central meridian at least 10◦. Improvements for this tool based on observations by Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter must be developed in the future work.